Market Watch - 1997 Napa Valley Cabernet
Written By: Kasey Carpenter on Mon, Nov 26th 2007
1997 was a storied vintage in Napa, particularly where Cabernet, the big money maker, is concerned. So it was no surprise to anyone when the critics and the press hitched up to the wagon and hailed it as the vintage of the decade. And to be honest, upon release, those Cabernets were very, very good. But what about a decade later? Are we still seeing the longevity that was bestowed upon those wines back in 1999?
Many people will debate this, but when you ask the room, take an honest consensus (ruling out those who took a huge position on the vintage) you will find that those high alcohol and juicy fruit bombers haven't held up as long as we had hoped. Those fine and mild tannins were just not a strong enough force to hold back the overwhelming quantity of the fruit, the alcohol, and ultimately we find a few of them that are falling off way ahead of schedule.
In fact, you will find that many of the 97's are sliding, with a few of those being noticeably one-dimensional in their old age.
Shocking!
But is it really? Let's take one Napa die hard for example, one of the self-proclaimed "first growths" of Napa Cabernet. Their 97 vintage reserve bottling was released in 2000 after some extensive barrel and bottle treatment. This is a good thing, and we will talk about the merits of letting the winery age your wine versus you doing at another time. Anyhow, this particular bottling was produced to the tune of nineteen thousand bottles, so we aren't talking rare by any means. And this is not a cheap bottle of wine, averaging well over a hundred dollars a bottle online and even higher in retail. It also received some good press, with scores ranging from ninety to ninety five - a very good score even in a crop that had numerous ninety five point plus wines in it.
But what sparked this whole article was an email I received from an online retailer heralding the bottle and letting me in on an "exclusive offer" whereby they have come across 600 bottles of this juice, and I can have it for only ninety nine dollars a bottle (twenty dollars below the MSRP).
So why not buy it? Well here's the deal. First off, these bottles were "held by the winery" which means they weren't sold, i.e. they had a hard time moving them. But wait, don't some wineries hold back bottles for their libraries and such? Yes this is true, but I can attest to the difficulty this same winery had with their 98's, to the point I saw them on a clearance shelf (cases of them) in a national wholesale warehouse's wine section - for just under forty bucks.
Now granted, I'm comparing the 98's to the 97's here, and that isn't fair - but hear me out.
Those scores that were given for this 97 were written when? Upon release, if not earlier, which was what, seven years ago? And the top end range of the drinking window was 2010 (not too far away.) So what tasted like a 95 pointer seven years ago maybe, just maybe, doesn't hold the same appeal now.
And now you see a large lot being "released" from the winery to a known outlet online retailer for an as yet unseen low price. The password is "dumping."
I'm not saying flood the markets with your 97 Napa Cabs, but I am saying this: I wouldn't buy them with any hope of getting a return right now. Even the mighty espresso and black fruit 97 Araujo Eislele Cab is showing signs of age, of shrinking back from its former self, as was attested to by popping a bottle just for this piece (note to ed: can I get billed back for that? R&D? No? Oh well...) and the fears of most are confirmed.
For investment potential, it is time to look elsewhere when it comes to the 97 vintage Napa Cabs - if they haven't hit their maximum potential yet, they are soon to do so, and you do not want to be left holding them if you are hoping they will age further.
But my goodness, for the sheer pleasure of it all, drink those 97's now, hit the butcher shop hard and heavy, fight the cold outdoors to man the pit and enjoy!
